Our "crowd level" estimate is based on a scale from 1 to 10, with 1 being least crowded conditions and 10 being most crowded. The scale measures the peak wait time at the Magic Kingdom's three headliner attractions (Space Mountain, Splash Mountain, and Big Thunder Mountain Railroad). Thus, the Crowd Level is a "worst case" scenario, predicting the longest wait at any of these three attractions on a particular day. Predictions for parks other than the Magic Kingdom are an approximation. View crowd level-to-minutes chart.

You've chosen the best time of year to visit Walt Disney World; now it's time to choose the least crowded parks for each day! Above, we list our "Best Park" and "Park To Avoid" recommendations. Parks that are not listed in either column we have no reason to recommend visiting or avoiding. To understand best how to use these recommendations, read this article.

The Crowd Calendar is not based on "our experience" — we use statistical methods prepared by our very own statistician Fred Hazelton to estimate the crowds. Since 2000, we've been collecting standby wait times and FASTPASS distribution times from Disney's parks on a regular basis throughout the year. On a normal research day, we'll collect wait times for nearly every attraction for 10-12 hours.

Since we introduced our mobile wait times website, Lines, in late 2009, we've started to receive a mountain of data directly from TouringPlans.com users. This has led to a sharp improvement in our models, and allowed us to stay on the bleeding edge of crowd conditions within the parks.

Other factors include:

• Historical Park Hours & Schedules

  We've archived park hours dating back to 2004, Extra Magic Hour schedules and special events dates, both official (Grad Nights, Mickey's Not So Scary Halloween Party, etc) and unofficial (Gay Days). These have a significant effect on the Crowd Calendar.

• Legal holidays in the United States

  We have extensive crowd data from some of the most crowded days of the year, including July 4th and New Year's Eve.

• Public school schedules

  Years of school schedules, including spring break dates for the 50 largest public school districts east of the Mississippi.

• Weekly historical occupancy rates for Orlando-area hotels.

  Our models consider weekly occupancy rates for seven different areas within the Orlando market, including the key Disney-area hotels in Lake Buena Vista and International Drive.

• Central Florida tourism demographics

  We analyze everything from which cities Orlando visitors come from and how long they stay, to how many people they bring and which theme parks they visit.